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Predictive Analytics: Your resolution will fail, here’s a promise you can keep

When technology is used in the right way it can enhance and improve our lives

During this seasonal holiday a great many of us will start to create plans for the forthcoming New Year. We’ll think about events, occurrences and happenings of the year gone by and many will commit to doing things better next year.

Even though studies have shown that only 8% of people keep their New Year’s resolutions , we still make (and subsequently break) them. But the intention was there, so good work!

Have you ever stopped to think about the processes your brain undertakes to enable you to set your goals for the New Year? No? Well, luckily I’ve done that bit for you. To make that resolution you combined your current and historical personal data and produced a future outcome, factoring in the probability of success, based on your analysis. A form of predictive analytics, if you like!

Predictive Analytics.

Using historical data to predict tomorrow’s outcomes

Thinking about those things you did (and didn’t do) this year and predicting/projecting for next year.

So now you know what it involves and we are (loosely) agreed that you’re on board with predictive analytics, when better than to tell you now that 2016 is going to be the year when we really start to see the benefits of predictive analytics within our jobs and people functions at work.

I think it’s now universally accepted that when technology is used in the right way it can enhance and improve our lives across every sector and industry. Most fields have seen significant developments over the last 20-30 years as technology is increasingly used to further our understanding of the way things work, enabling us to make better decisions in areas such as medicine, sport, communication and, arguably, even dating (predictive analytics is used in all of those sectors by the way!) so why not use it to help us find the right people for the right organisations?

Did you know you no longer need a top-class honours degree to work at Google?

Every employee is put through their analytics process allowing the business to match the right person with the right team, giving each individual the best environment to allow their talent to flourish.

Companies such as E&Y and Deloitte are using different methods to tackle the same problem – removing conscious and subconscious bias attached to the name and/or perceived quality of the university where applicants studied.

Airlines, retail, BPOs, recruitment firms a growing number of businesses within these sectors are using or on-boarding predictive analytics to achieve upturns in profits, productivity and achieving a more diverse and happier workforce.

Predictive analytics helps us make people and talent decisions to positively influence tomorrow’s business performance without bias, so I guess the question is this – if it’s already a proven science to achieve results, why isn’t everyone doing it? How long until everyone starts to use, and see the benefits, of predictive analytics?

Which logically raises the question: what are the benefits?

  • Time efficiencies – wouldn’t it be great for all parties in an interview to know that the data is indicating this role and person are a good fit before the candidate walks into the room? Hopefully reducing the reliance on both parties to be having a “good day”.
  • Diversity, inclusion removing the optics so often associated with a role. No more stated, or implied, previous sales / retail / PR experience but instead you can attract people from as broad a spectrum as possible knowing the data will help identify those candidates who have the foundation for success within your business and could well be your next superstars!
  • Churn/attrition – wouldn’t it be great to know that you can fill your 10 / 50 / 2000 seasonal/part-time roles from a pool of candidates who will have a higher chance of staying with the business longer, becoming successful brand ambassadors for your company leading to happier staff and customers alike.
  • Unique to your business – wouldn’t it be fantastic to know that all of these predictions are tailored purely for your business? For example, knowing that a candidate not overachieving in their previous role at one of your competitors isn’t reflective of their potential and that you can take advantage of their previous training and knowledge because the data says they’re going to be a better performer within your business.

Data can be big and it can be daunting, but it can also be invaluable if you ask and frame the right questions and combine the answers with human knowledge and experience. You will be surprised by the insights, knowledge and benefits that your business can obtain from even the smallest amounts of data. Data you probably already collect, even if it’s unknowingly or unwittingly!

List of Recruiting Resolutions

So as you start rummaging through your brain trying to remember where you filed your finest seasonal outfit(s) (that might just be me!), start prepping for the new year budgets, or start writing your list of resolutions let me help you frame a few questions:

  • Does your sector suffer from a skills shortage?
  • Would your company like to know which candidates from another sector have a higher likelihood of success post-training?
  • Would your business like to see an upturn in performance or people metrics such as increased sales, decreased absenteeism, longer tenure for better performers or a more diverse workforce? Would your Finance, Talent or HR head of department like to see an improvement in the variety of measures that indicate a better, more productive and happier workforce?

Statistically, your personal New Year’s resolution is unlikely to be on course in 12-months time so instead, why not make a resolution to bring predictive analytics into your talent processes in the upcoming year?

You’ll see the benefits for years to come, and that’s a promise we can both keep.

Happy holidays!


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Neuroinclusion by design. Not by exception.

Why neuroinclusion can’t be a retrofit and how Sapia.ai is building a better experience for every candidate.

In the past, if you were neurodivergent and applying for a job, you were often asked to disclose your diagnosis to get a basic accommodation – extra time on a test, maybe the option to skip a task. That disclosure often came with risk: of judgment, of stigma, or just being seen as different.

This wasn’t inclusion. It was bureaucracy. And it made neurodiverse candidates carry the burden of fitting in.

We’ve come a long way, but we’re not there yet.

Shifting from retrofits to inclusive-by-design

Over the last two decades, hiring practices have slowly moved away from reactive accommodations toward proactive, human-centric design. Leading employers began experimenting with:

  • Sharing interview questions in advance

  • Replacing group exercises with structured simulations

  • Offering a variety of assessment formats

  • Co-designing assessments with neurodiverse candidates

But even these advances have often been limited in scope, applied to special hiring programs or specific roles. Neurodiverse talent still encounters systems built for neurotypical profiles, with limited flexibility and a heavy dose of social performance pressure.

Hiring needs to look different.

Insight 1: The next frontier of hiring equity is universal design

Truly inclusive hiring doesn’t rely on diagnosis or disclosure. It doesn’t just give a select few special treatment. It’s about removing friction for everyone, especially those who’ve historically been excluded.

That’s why Sapia.ai was built with universal design principles from day one.

Here’s what that looks like in practice:

  • No time limits — Candidates answer at their own pace
  • No pressure to perform — It’s a conversation, not a spotlight
  • No video, no group tasks — Just structured, 1:1 chat-based interviews
  • Built-in coaching — Everyone gets personalised feedback

It’s not a workaround. It’s a rework.

Insight 2: Not all “friendly” methods are inclusive

We tend to assume that social or “casual” interview formats make people comfortable. But for many neurodiverse individuals, icebreakers, group exercises, and informal chats are the problem, not the solution.

When we asked 6,000 neurodiverse candidates about their experience using Sapia.ai’s chat-based interview, they told us:

“It felt very 1:1 and trustworthy… I had time to fully think about my answers.”

“It was less anxiety-inducing than video interviews.”

“I like that all applicants get initial interviews which ensures an unbiased and fair way to weigh-up candidates.”

Insight 3: Prediction ≠ Inclusion

Some AI systems claim to infer skills or fit from resumes or behavioural data. But if the training data is biased or the experience itself is exclusionary, you’re just replicating the same inequity with more speed and scale.

Inclusion means seeing people for who they are, not who they resemble in your data set.

At Sapia.ai, every interaction is transparent, explainable, and scientifically validated. We use structured, fair assessments that work for all brains, not just neurotypical ones.

Where to from here?

Neurodiversity is rising in both awareness and representation. However, inclusion won’t scale unless the systems behind hiring change as well.

That’s why we built a platform that:

  • Doesn’t rely on disclosure

  • Removes ambiguity and pressure

  • Creates space for everyone to shine

  • Measures what matters, fairly

Sapia.ai is already powering inclusive, structured, and scalable hiring for global employers like BT Group, Costa Coffee and Concentrix. Want to see how your hiring process can be more inclusive for neurodivergent individuals? Let’s chat. 

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Skills Measurement vs Skills Inference – What’s the Difference and Why Does It Matter?

There’s growing interest in AI-driven tools that infer skills from CVs, LinkedIn profiles, and other passive data sources. These systems claim to map someone’s capability based on the words they use, the jobs they’ve held, and patterns derived from millions of similar profiles. In theory, it’s efficient. But when inference becomes the primary basis for hiring or promotion, we need to scrutinise what’s actually being measured and what’s not.

Let’s be clear: the technology isn’t the problem. Modern inference engines use advanced natural language processing, embeddings, and knowledge graphs. The science behind them is genuinely impressive. And when they’re used alongside richer sources of data, such as internal project contributions, validated assessments, or behavioural evidence, they can offer valuable insight for workforce planning and development.

But we need to separate the two ideas:

  • Skills Measurement: Directly observing or quantifying a skill based on evidence of actual performance. 
  • Skills Inference: Estimating the likelihood that someone has a skill, based on indirect signals or patterns in their data. 

The risk lies in conflating the two.

The Problem Isn’t Inference of Skills. It’s the Data Feeding It

CVs and LinkedIn profiles are riddled with bias, inconsistency, and omission. They’re self-authored, unverified, and often written strategically – for example, to enhance certain experiences or downplay others in response to a job ad. 

And different groups represent themselves in different ways. Ahuja (2024) showed, for example, that male MBA graduates in India tend to self-promote more than their female peers. Something as simple as a longer LinkedIn ‘About’ section becomes a proxy for perceived competence.

Job titles are vague. Skill descriptions vary. Proficiency is rarely signposted. Even where systems draw on internal performance data, the quality is often questionable. Ratings tend to cluster (remember the year everyone got a ‘3’ at your org?) and can often reflect manager bias or company culture more than actual output.

Sophisticated ≠ Objective

The most advanced skill inference platforms use layered data: open web sources like job ads and bios, public databases like O*NET and ESCO, internal frameworks, even anonymised behavioural signals from platform users. This breadth gives a more complete picture, and the models powering it are undeniably sophisticated.

But sophistication doesn’t equal accuracy.

These systems rely heavily on proxies and correlations, rather than observed behaviour. They estimate presence, not proficiency. And when used in high-stakes decisions, that distinction matters.

Transparency (or Lack Thereof)

In many inference systems, it’s hard to trace where a skill came from. Was it picked up from a keyword? Assumed from a job title? Correlated with others in similar roles? The logic is rarely visible, and that’s a problem, especially when decisions based on these inferences affect access to jobs, development, or promotion.

Presence ≠ Proficiency

Inferred skills suggest someone might have a capability. But hiring isn’t about possibility. It’s about evidence of capability. Saying you’ve led a team isn’t the same as doing it well. Collecting or observing actual examples of behaviour allows you to evaluate someone’s true competence at a claimed skill. 

Some platforms try to infer proficiency, too, but this is still inference, not measurement. No matter how smart the model, it’s still drawing conclusions from indirect data.

By contrast, validated assessments like structured interviews, simulations, and psychometric tools are designed to measure. They observe behaviour against defined criteria, use consistent scoring frameworks (like Behaviourally Anchored Rating Scales, or BARS), and provide a transparent, defensible basis for decision-making. In doing this, the level or proficiency of a skill can be placed on a properly calibrated scale. 

But here’s the thing: we don’t have to choose one over the other.

A Smarter Way Forward: The Hybrid Model

The real opportunity lies in combining the rigour of measurement with the scalability of inference.

Start with measurement
Define the skills that matter. Use structured tools to capture behavioural evidence. Set a clear standard for what good looks like. For example, define Behaviourally Anchored Rating Scales (BARS) when assessing interviews for skills. Using a framework like Sapia.ai’s Competency Framework is critical for defining what you want to measure. 

Layer in inference
Apply AI to scale scoring, add contextual nuance, and detect deeper patterns that human assessors might miss, especially when reviewing large volumes of data.

Anchor the whole system in transparency and validation
Ensure people understand how inferences are made by providing clear explanations. Continuously test for fairness. Keep human oversight in the loop, especially where the stakes are high. More information on ensuring AI systems are transparent can be found in this paper.

This hybrid model respects the strengths and limits of both approaches. It recognises that AI can’t replace human judgement, but it can enhance it. That inference can extend reach, but only measurement can give you higher confidence in the results.

The Bottom Line

Inference can support and guide, but only measurement can prove. And when people’s futures are on the line, proof should always win.

References

Ahuja, A. (2024). LinkedIn profile analysis reveals gender-based differences in self-presentation among Indian MBA graduates. Journal of Business and Psychology.

 

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Making Healthcare Hiring Human with Ethical AI

Hiring for care is unlike any other sector. Recruiters are looking for people who can bring empathy, resilience, and energy to the most demanding human roles. Whether it’s dental care, mental health, or aged care, new hires are charged with looking after others when they’re most vulnerable. The stakes are high. 

Hiring for care is exactly where leveraging ethical AI can make the biggest impact.

Hiring for the traits that matter

The best carers don’t always have the best CVs.

That’s why our chat-based AI interview doesn’t screen for qualifications. It screens for the the skills that matter when caring for others. The traits that define a brilliant care worker, things like:

Empathy, Self-awareness, Accountability, Teamwork, and Energy. 

The best way to uncover these traits is through structured behavioural science, delivered through an experience that allows candidates to open up. Giving candidates space to give real-life, open-text answers. With no time pressure or video stress. Then, our AI picks up the signals that matter, free from any demographic data or bias-inducing signals.

Candidates’ answers to our structured interview questions aren’t simply ticking boxes. They’re a window into how someone shows up under pressure. And they’re helping leading care organisations hire people who belong in care and those who stay.

Inclusion, built in

Inclusivity should be a core foundation of any talent assessment, and it’s a fundamental requirement for hirers in the care industry. 

When healthcare hirers use chat-based AI interviews, designed to be inclusive for all groups, candidates complete their interviews when and where they choose, without the bias traps of face-to-face or phone screening. There are no accents to judge, no assumptions, just their words and their story.

And it works:

  • 91.8% of carer candidates complete their interviews
  • Carer candidates report 9/10 Candidate Satisfaction with their interview experience 
  • 80% of candidates would recommend others to apply 
  • Every candidate receives personalised feedback, regardless of the outcome

Drop-offs are reduced, and engagement & employer brand advocacy go up. Building a brand that candidates want to work for includes providing a hiring experience that candidates want to complete. 

Real outcomes in care hiring

Our smart chat already works for some of the most respected names in healthcare and community services. Here’s a sample of the outcomes that are possible by leveraging ethical AI, a validated scientific assessment, wrapped in an experience that candidates love: 

Anglicare – a leading provider of aged care services
  • Time-to-offer dropped from 40+ days to just 14
  • Candidate pool grew by 30%
  • Turnover dropped by 63%
Abano Healthcare – Australasia’s largest dental support organisation
  • 1,213 recruiter hours saved  in the first month (67 hours per individual hiring team member) 
  • $25,000 saved in screening and interviewing time
Berry Street – a not for profit family & child services organisation
  • Time-to-hire down from 22 to 7 days
  • 95.4% of candidates completed their chat interviews

A smarter way to hire

The case study tells the full story of how Sapia.ai helped Anglicare, Abano Healthcare, and Berry Street transform their hiring processes by scaling up, reducing burnout, and hiring with heart. 

Download it here:

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